Commentary
Print Print

Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 11.8.2024
Key Takeaways
  • Oil inventories are at record lows, demand is at an all-time high, and OPEC compliance is up, signaling a tight market.
  • The market is worried about weaker demand (especially from China), overestimated non-OPEC supply, and OPEC’s future production cuts.
  • Despite 2024 weakness, experts believe China’s demand will grow in 2025.
  • Shale production growth in 2025 will likely be modest, with companies focusing more on cash flow than expansion.
  • OPEC will adjust production carefully, aligning with demand and U.S. shale growth, positioning for long-term stability.

Nov 8, 2024:

Despite historic lows in global oil inventories and record-high demand, the energy market remains clouded by concerns about future balances in 2025. In this episode, Eric breaks down the forces behind these dynamics and provides insight into what may lie ahead for energy markets.

Key Topics:

  • Record-Low Oil Inventories: Analyzing the lowest seasonal oil inventory levels on record and their implications for market health.
  • Historic Oil Demand: How global demand is hitting unprecedented levels, with Saudi Aramco forecasting 106 million barrels per day for Q4 2024.
  • Bearish Sentiment Explained: Exploring why some market players remain bearish despite bullish fundamentals.
  • China's Demand Outlook: A closer look at China’s economic performance and growth potential for 2025, with insights from major crude traders.
  • Non-OPEC Supply Projections: Discussing the reliability of non-OPEC production forecasts, particularly for U.S. shale and Brazilian oil production.
  • U.S. Shale Production Plateau: Understanding the maturity phase of U.S. shale and its impact on global supply dynamics.
  • OPEC’s Long-Term Strategy: How OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is likely to approach the gradual reintroduction of oil supply in 2025.
  • Geopolitical Influences: Potential impacts of a new U.S. administration on Iran’s oil exports and the global market balance.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    Eric reviews the key energy trends from 2024 and his insights on what lies ahead for 2025.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    Eric breaks down the latest developments from the postponed OPEC meeting and explains why their decisions are a game-changer for global oil markets.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    Eric Nuttall dives into the latest developments shaping the oil and gas sector. From potential tariffs on Canadian oil to the deferred OPEC+ meeting and the outlook for U.S. shale production.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    Eric Nuttall dives into the natural gas market, exploring its impressive 10% surge and the factors driving its growth. From increasing power demand fueled by AI and data centers to the challenges of decarbonization and the ongoing expansion of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, Eric provides a detailed breakdown of the key trends shaping the energy landscape.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's update, Eric discusses the potential impact of the recent Trump presidency on global oil markets, OPEC’s upcoming decisions, and Canada’s new emissions cap.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    This week, Eric Nuttall covers crucial events impacting oil prices, from geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran to the upcoming US election and potential outcomes under a Trump or Harris presidency. Eric discusses how global oil supply and demand could be influenced by US foreign policies, specifically regarding sanctions on Iran and Russia.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this weekly update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategy, breaks down the latest events in the global energy markets. He discusses how geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are causing uncertainty among energy investors, who remain in a holding pattern awaiting potential impacts on oil supply. Eric also examines the potential influence of the upcoming U.S. election on energy policies, with a focus on sanctions against Iran, which could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market.
    Sector Investments