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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 11.8.2024
Key Takeaways
  • Oil inventories are at record lows, demand is at an all-time high, and OPEC compliance is up, signaling a tight market.
  • The market is worried about weaker demand (especially from China), overestimated non-OPEC supply, and OPEC’s future production cuts.
  • Despite 2024 weakness, experts believe China’s demand will grow in 2025.
  • Shale production growth in 2025 will likely be modest, with companies focusing more on cash flow than expansion.
  • OPEC will adjust production carefully, aligning with demand and U.S. shale growth, positioning for long-term stability.

Nov 8, 2024:

Despite historic lows in global oil inventories and record-high demand, the energy market remains clouded by concerns about future balances in 2025. In this episode, Eric breaks down the forces behind these dynamics and provides insight into what may lie ahead for energy markets.

Key Topics:

  • Record-Low Oil Inventories: Analyzing the lowest seasonal oil inventory levels on record and their implications for market health.
  • Historic Oil Demand: How global demand is hitting unprecedented levels, with Saudi Aramco forecasting 106 million barrels per day for Q4 2024.
  • Bearish Sentiment Explained: Exploring why some market players remain bearish despite bullish fundamentals.
  • China's Demand Outlook: A closer look at China’s economic performance and growth potential for 2025, with insights from major crude traders.
  • Non-OPEC Supply Projections: Discussing the reliability of non-OPEC production forecasts, particularly for U.S. shale and Brazilian oil production.
  • U.S. Shale Production Plateau: Understanding the maturity phase of U.S. shale and its impact on global supply dynamics.
  • OPEC’s Long-Term Strategy: How OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is likely to approach the gradual reintroduction of oil supply in 2025.
  • Geopolitical Influences: Potential impacts of a new U.S. administration on Iran’s oil exports and the global market balance.

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