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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 2.28.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Energy Market Reset – The Trump election has reignited realistic conversations on energy policy and oil’s long-term role.
  • Tariff Uncertainty & Canadian Energy – Market fears over U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil may be overblown.
  • The Math Behind Tariffs – Full 10% tariffs would only impact cash flow by ~7%, with estimates ranging from 1-6%.
  • Canadian Energy Stocks & Share Buybacks – Companies are aggressively buying back shares, taking advantage of low valuations.

Feb 28, 2025

Live from Vienna, outside OPEC headquarters!

In this week’s episode, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares key takeaways from two weeks of global energy meetings, discussing the impact of U.S. tariffs, the outlook for oil demand, and the twilight of U.S. shale production. With volatility at extreme levels, Eric breaks down what’s noise and what really matters for Canadian energy investors.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Energy Market Reset – The Trump election has reignited realistic conversations on energy policy and oil’s long-term role.
  • Tariff Uncertainty & Canadian Energy – Market fears over U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil may be overblown.
  • The Math Behind Tariffs – Full 10% tariffs would only impact cash flow by ~7%, with estimates ranging from 1-6%.
  • Canadian Energy Stocks & Share Buybacks – Companies are aggressively buying back shares, taking advantage of low valuations.
  • OPEC's Long-Term Outlook – Oil demand is set to grow longer and stronger than consensus forecasts suggest.
  • U.S. Shale Decline – Public company guidance reaffirms that shale is entering its twilight, with growth slowing significantly.
  • The Global Supply Challenge – Even with OPEC’s spare capacity (~4 million barrels/day), demand will outpace new production.
  • Bullish 2025 Energy Outlook – Despite early-year volatility, robust free cash flow and strong yields make energy stocks highly attractive.

Historical Commentary

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