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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 3.27.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Oil and gas are recovering, but markets still undervalue the sector.
  • U.S. shale growth is stalling as costs rise and confidence fades.
  • A major boost for Canadian natural gas is just weeks away.
  • Undervalued equities, strong buybacks, and rising gas exposure may offer upside.

March 27, 2025

In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down the rebound in oil and natural gas prices, the continued unwind of false narratives like “drill baby drill,” and why the launch of LNG Canada could be a game-changer for Canadian natural gas producers.

With energy stocks recovering, U.S. shale growth stagnating, and global oil inventories remaining tight, this update focuses on why the market is mispricing energy—and where the real opportunities lie.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Oil Back Near $70, Natural Gas Near $4 – Panic-induced selloff is reversing as markets regain footing.
  • Dallas Fed Survey Insights – U.S. shale production costs are up, not down—contradicting the “efficiency gains” narrative.
  • Shale Executives Voice Concern – Anonymous commentary reveals deep uncertainty and production hesitancy due to Trump-era volatility.
  • LNG Canada Milestone – Plant cooling begins next week, setting the stage for first Canadian LNG exports in coming months.
  • Canadian Natural Gas Tailwinds
      - Gas differentials expected to narrow to ~$1.10
      - U.S. strip pricing around $4.35 with upside to $5
  • Oil Market Tightness
      - Global inventories below average
      - Brent trades ~$11 below estimated fair value ($85)
  • Medium-Term Outlook: Bullish
      - U.S. shale twilight continues
      - OPEC+ spare capacity normalization
      - Potential loss of 1M bpd from Iranian sanctions
  • Energy Equities Opportunity
      - Share buybacks remain robust
      - Energy stocks trading at attractive valuations
  • Natural Gas Rising in Importance – Now ~50% of the fund as gas moves from “bridge fuel” to critical baseload energy source.

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