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(7 Day Change as of March 13, 2025 1:20PM ET)
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Bitcoin Price: $80,277
(9.42%)
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DeFi Total-Value-Locked: $88.0B
(9.65%)
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Ethereum Price: $1,845
(16.67%)
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Crypto Market Cap: $2.64T
(9.59%)
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Bitcoin Range: $76,905 - $90,922
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TKN.U Close: $12.87 (as at Mar 12, 2025)
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Ethereum Range: $1,792 - $2,222
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Bitcoin Dominance: 60.70%
0.66%
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Is Trump Still Good for Crypto?
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Wall Street and the world are finally waking up to the troubling reality that Trump’s tariff tantrums are not going away, threatening global growth, reshaping alliances, and disrupting the world order. For now, he also seems unfazed about the tariff-induced stock market correction, or that warning signals are flashing of a U.S. recession this year.
Cryptoassets like Bitcoin were for a time the darling of the so-called “Trump Trade” – the basket of financial assets that were supposed to benefit from a Trump presidency – soaring in the aftermath of the election, as Trump pledged to completely overhaul the government’s approach to the industry.
Hopes were high that Trump would be pro-business and embrace policies friendly to innovation industries like crypto and AI and so far, he has delivered on several promises. He has appointed pro-crypto administrators to key agencies and cabinet positions. Led by his allies in the House and Senate, a bipartisan majority in Congress voted to repeal the “DeFi Broker Rule” which would have required open-source software developers to register as broker-dealers to the IRS under U.S. law. On the AI front, he appointed David Sacks to be Crypto and AI Czar and he has received pledges from business leaders to continue investing in AI infrastructure in the United States. The Federal government is reportedly investigating using blockchain to reduce waste and improve efficiency. These are all positive developments.
However, there are troubling aspects to this story. Trump has undermined his credibility on the issue, first by launching World Liberty Financial, a crypto scheme promoted online by his sons, and then upping the stakes with the disastrous launch of his TRUMP and MELANIA “memecoins” (both of which have declined more than 85% since launch), seen by many as a money-making scheme launched by the incoming President on the eve of his inauguration when attention and interest were at its absolute highest.
Readers of this newsletter will know that we
raised concerns at the time about the obvious conflict of interest and the lack of disclosure about $TRUMP, the eponymous memecoin. Doubtless many Trump fans bought into the asset hoping to be invested alongside their hero, only to watch most of their investment evaporate while the President distanced himself publicly from the failed project. $TRUMP raises other issues. Friend and foe alike may try to influence the President by lining his digital wallet.
Some have even suggested that Trump really doesn’t get or care about blockchain and crypto and is more interested in rewarding campaign supporters, while exploiting an easy opportunity to enrich himself. Reports this week that the Trump family considered investing in Binance, the largest cryptoasset exchange, as its former CEO was negotiating a Presidential pardon, added some fuel to this concern.
I also
argued that the fate of crypto is tied to the fate of the US economy and warned that if Trump took steps to destabilize and harm the economy the market for digital assets would suffer. As they have. He said he would lower inflation and build a thriving economy from day one, but the reality is settling in that a very different future awaits. His on-again off-again implementation of tariffs and erratic, hard-to-understand actions on the global stage including threatening to use economic force to annex Canada and refusal to rule out a recession in America have led to a broad market selloff. Crypto was not immune with the price of Bitcoin plummeting 30 percent since its January high.
However, this is about more than politics and their impact on the prices of a new asset class. Like the rise of the Internet, PC and the printing press, today, AI and Crypto are emerging as two of the leading technologies of a new digital age that may define a new era for the Internet, business, society and the world. Crypto, specifically, is a new medium for money and assets that will do for value what the first era of the internet did for information, disrupting industries like finance and democratizing ownership of assets like no technology before it.
What’s more, despite the change of tone at the top, investors have little to show for it so far.
Consider Ethereum and Solana, two blockchain networks that support a diverse ecosystem of applications, from peer-to-peer exchanges, to stablecoins to decentralized AI “agents” – software that can perform tasks and do transactions.
The consensus was that the incoming Trump administration would clear the deck for innovators to build new applications and launch products on these networks. Users pay to use the network in the native tokens, ETH and SOL. So, the more network activity, the more revenue accrues to token holders. Given these platforms are engineered for real-world use cases, one could argue they should be outperforming. And, for a time, they did. Ethereum and Solana both rallied after Trump’s victory, but are now more than 25% lower than the day before the election.
Mark Cuban, the outspoken Billionaire investor and Democratic donor, mused during the campaign that the real reason some crypto enthusiasts and leaders in the tech and VC community supported Trump was because they believed his tax cuts, deficit spending plans and tariffs would drive inflation higher, while his foreign policy would destabilize the global order, increasing risks and dangers to our system, and increasing demand for a store of value like Bitcoin. This always felt a bit cynical. Would VCs and other business leaders really root for instability and chaos? Business can’t succeed in a world that is failing. But, then again, perhaps Bitcoin – the only major crypto up big since the election – can.
Perhaps Trump’s erratic actions and tariff tantrums taper off and cryptoassets, with stocks and other financial assets, recover. Assuming Trump continues to delegate crypto policy to the capable technocrats who are running agencies like the SEC, we could be in for a great year or more. However, those who have worked closely with Trump have told often how Trump is notoriously mercurial – easily swayed on many issues. We remain cautiously optimistic. But for those who support Trump because they believe he’ll be good for business and, therefore, good for crypto, I can only say: I told you so.
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THIS WEEK ON DEFI DECODED
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Join Alex Tapscott and Andrew Young as they decode the world of Web3 with special guest Tom Dunleavy, Partner of MV Global. Listen in as they discuss what’s happening in the world and its impact on traditional and crypto markets, the implications of Trump’s tariffs on the U.S. and its global trading partners, whether Trump is attempting to play 4D chess with the Fed to lower rates, the macro effects on the crypto market in the year ahead, which cryptoassets might perform well in the next leg of the bull market, how crypto fundamentals differ between layer 1 networks and applications, what DePIN is and the exciting projects leading this sector, the intersection of crypto and AI, Tom’s initial 2025 price targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana and whether he still stands by them, a potential return to fair token launches, and more.
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By: Jake Moodie
, Analyst, Digital Asset Group at Ninepoint Partners
OCC Clears Path for Banks to Enter the Crypto Arena, Building on Momentum from the SAB 121 Repeal and FASB’s ASU-2023 Accounting Update
In our
2025 outlook, we said that regulatory clarity would attract banks into the crypto arena. This week, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the federal agency that oversees banks,
issued a letter informing that they could custody cryptoassets, hold stablecoin reserves, and settle payments on blockchain networks. The OCC went further to even remove the requirement for OCC-supervised banks to seek prior approval before engaging in such activities. Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood commented, saying this move “will reduce the burden on banks to engage in crypto-related activities and ensure these activities are treated consistently by the OCC, regardless of the underlying technology.” This builds on recent momentum, such as the SEC’s
repeal of SAB 121 and the implementation of
ASU 2023-08. SAB 121 forced banks to record client-held crypto as liabilities on their balance sheets. ASU 2023-08 enables companies to record crypto holdings at fair value, with gains and losses reflected in net income; before, it was to be recorded historical cost, only writing it down when impaired, with no way to adjust upward if the value rebounded. Banks have been eager to enter the space—
Bank of America,
Morgan Stanley,
Charles Schwab, and
SoFi have all expressed strong interest but were waiting on regulators to provide direction. Now, with this latest move from the OCC, we’re one big step closer to opening the floodgates for institutional adoption.
Crypto Firm IPO Pipeline Expands with Gemini and Kraken as Regulatory Pressure Turns to Support
As we’ve talked about before, crypto firm IPOs in the U.S. were one of our key trends to watch for in 2025, with regulatory clarity emerging under the new pro-crypto administration and SEC. This past week, we got a few major updates on this front:
Gemini has officially filed for its IPO, and
Kraken is targeting a Q1 2026 debut. Both companies are cryptoexchanges domiciled in the U.S.—Kraken
ranks as the 10th largest globally by trading volume, while Gemini sits at 24th. On top of that, both these firms had their multi-year lawsuits from the SEC dismissed last week, part of a broader reform that also saw the SEC drop cases against
Coinbase,
Robinhood,
ConsenSys,
OpenSea, and
Yuga Labs. This comes just a few weeks after Bullish Global, another cryptoexchange, was
reportedly exploring an IPO for some time this year. We believe other companies, including Circle, Anchorage Digital, and Chainalysis, are also strong candidates for potential IPOs. To put it briefly, the crypto public equity investment universe is set to materially grow in the year ahead. The regulatory headwinds that once pushed companies away haven’t just eased—they’ve flipped.
Sony’s Ethereum Layer-2 Soneium Partners with Japan’s Largest Social Network LINE to Bring Mini-App Games Onchain for Its 200 Million Users
Sony’s Ethereum layer-2 network, Soneium, has
announced a partnership with LINE, one of Japan’s largest social networks, to bring four of its mini-apps onchain within the Soneium ecosystem over the next few months. This collaboration will bring in-game rewards and purchases on Soneium’s blockchain rails for LINE’s Sleepagotchi, Farm Frens, Puffy Match, and Pocket Mob—a huge onboarding opportunity given LINE’s 200 million active users. It builds on LINE’s earlier move in January when they
launched a decentralized application portal for users to engage with. Soneium was developed by Sony Block Solutions Labs, a joint venture between Sony Group and Startale Labs. After launching its testnet last August, Soneium rolled out its mainnet in January. Built on Optimism’s OP Stack—just like Coinbase’s Base—Soneium was designed to bridge Web3 with mainstream internet services across entertainment, gaming, and finance, leveraging Sony’s massive distribution channels. Sony Block Solutions Labs Chairman Jun Watanabe commented on the partnership, saying it “will drive engagement and adoption in ways that were previously difficult to achieve.” This move mirrors The Open Network (TON)
integrating into Telegram to become the official blockchain infrastructure for its mini-app ecosystem; both are leveraging social platforms with hundreds of millions of users to bring their technology to the masses.
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Chart #1:
President Trump Creates U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: How Much Bitcoin Does the U.S. Already Hold vs. Other Nations?
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With President Trump’s official
order to establish the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) last week, we took a look at how much Bitcoin the U.S. currently holds and how it compares to other nations. Before diving into the numbers, it’s worth noting that most of the Bitcoin held by governments today comes from past asset seizures tied to criminal activity. Right now, only 9 out of 195 countries
hold Bitcoin: the U.S., China, the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador, Venezuela, Finland, and Georgia. Together, they hold 513,000 Bitcoin—about 2.4% of the total supply. The U.S. leads the pack with 198,109 Bitcoin, worth $16.1 billion at current prices. The only entities holding more Bitcoin than the U.S. are MicroStrategy, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, and Fidelity’s FBTC Bitcoin ETF. That said, this number reflects what the U.S. currently has in custody, not necessarily what will be allocated to the SBR. Around 55% of its holdings—Bitcoin stolen in the 2015 Bitfinex hack—is
expected to be returned to the cryptoexchange, leaving the U.S. with roughly 86,000 Bitcoin to potentially seed the reserve. Trump’s order also directed the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring more Bitcoin. By establishing this SBR, the U.S. has set a bold precedent that we think other countries will follow. In one year’s time, this chart could very well look much more crowded.
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Chart #2:
It’s Been Nearly One Year Since Bitcoin’s Halving Network Upgrade: How Have the Largest Miners Fared?
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It has been almost a year since Bitcoin’s fourth halving network upgrade on April 20, 2024, which reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin. These block rewards serve as the primary source of revenue for pure-play Bitcoin miners, who earn them in exchange for providing computing power to verify transactions on and secure the network. In the month leading up to the halving, the largest public miners
earned just over 5,000 BTC. This figure dropped by 44% to 2,800 in the 30 days following the event—an entirely expected outcome given the halving’s impact. Interestingly, this metric rebounded to nearly 4,000 BTC in December, as post-election euphoria propelled Bitcoin to new all-time highs above $100,000, creating highly favourable conditions and strong incentives for miners to ramp up activity. Over the past few years, MARA, CLSK, RIOT, and IREN have consistently mined the most bitcoin each month, while other players have seen their share of total production decline. However, for some companies, this shift has been intentional. Amid the broader AI boom—particularly following the halving—several miners have chosen to transition into diversified high-performance computing (HPC) firms. These companies continue to mine Bitcoin but also supply computing power to AI firms and hyperscalers, which require massive computational resources and energy efficiency—two areas where Bitcoin miners have a competitive edge due to their cheap power contracts. This positioning makes them a relatively cost-effective and fast solution to meet the growing demand. As always, we are closely monitoring this sector and will keep you informed of any material developments.
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March 13, 2025
