Sprott Energy Strategy

Market View: Feb 13/18

Warning: the conclusion in this commentary is way out of consensus.

This morning the IEA provided their monthly update on global oil demand/supply/inventories.  We watch the inventory balance closely as this is the intersection between supply and demand (the market mainly focuses on supply which only gives half the picture).  For December OECD oil inventories fell by 55MM Bbls (this compares to the 5 year average of -29MM Bbls).  This was the steepest monthly drop since February 2011.  Even more importantly, their preliminary indication for January is for a build of only 5MM Bbls (inventories ALWAYS build in January due to seasonal demand trends) and this would compare to last year’s build of 85MM Bbls and a 5 year average build of 36MM Bbls. 

As a result of very strong demand growth, tempered US and Non-OPEC/US supply growth, and very high compliance on the part of OPEC/Russia, the surplus of oil inventories fell from a high of 334MM Bbls in January to only 70MM Bbls in December (ie. 0.7MM Bbl/d undersupplied throughout the year).  This drop is the sharpest in history.


Source: Ninepoint Partners based on publicly available information

Given continued strong demand indications (China January oil demand up 10%, India up 400k bbl/d YOY, etc.), continued 100%+ compliance on the part of OPEC, and moderate non-OPEC/US supply growth we see the market remaining undersupplied throughout the year, despite an acceleration in US supply growth.  We also expect OPEC/Russia to overshoot (i.e. keep the market undersupplied longer than required).

 
Source: Ninepoint Partners based on publicly available information

Conclusion: Even accounting for a recent uptick in the rate of US supply growth, so long as the market remains 0.5MM Bbl/d undersupplied, we believe inventories will reach balanced levels by March.  This is well ahead of consensus (and up from our earlier estimate of May). While this forecast might sound outlandish, we were well ahead of the curve in 2017 calling for a balanced market by mid-2018 while others were saying it could take 1-2 years beyond that.

If our forecasts are remotely close to accurate (the oil market heading into deficit in Q2 2018 and potentially reaching over 200MM Bbls deficit by YE) the bias for the oil price is clearly higher.  The last time oil inventories dropped below 2.6BN barrels was December 2014.  We have that occurring in October 2018.  The price of oil in December 2014… $70/bbl WTI.  Where was the S&P Oil & Gas Index then? Around 45 versus 33 today (36% upside).  Where was the Oil Service Sector Index? Around 200 versus 140 today (43% upside).

Eric

 
Source: Ninepoint Partners based on publicly available information

 

 

 

 

1 All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F units; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at January 31, 2018; e) 2004 annual returns are from 04/15/04 to 12/31/04. The index is 100% S&P/TSX Capped Energy TRI and is computed by Ninepoint Partners LP based on publicly available index information. Since inception of fund Series F.

The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks. See the prospectus of the Fund for a description of these risks: concentration risk; credit risk; currency risk; cybersecurity risk; derivatives risk; exchange traded funds risk; foreign investment risk; inflation risk; interest rate risk; liquidity risk; market risk; regulatory risk; securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; series risk; short selling risk; small capitalization natural resource company risk; specific issuer risk; tax risk.

Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), other charges and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rate of return for series F units of the Fund for the period ended January 31, 2018 is based on the historical annual compounded total return including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

The opinions, estimates and projections (“information”) contained within this report are solely those of Ninepoint Partners LP and are subject to change without notice. Ninepoint Partners makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, Ninepoint Partners assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. Ninepoint Partners is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances. Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Ninepoint Partners. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not to be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by Ninepoint Partners is or will be invested. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may collectively beneficially own/control 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may hold short position in any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. During the preceding 12 months, Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may have received remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services from the issuers mentioned in this report.

Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. DEALER SERVICES: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

Related Funds

Historical Commentary