European markets have been quite volatile in the past few weeks. A complex political landscape combined with trade uncertainties has contributed to the recent sell–offs. The MSCI Europe Small Cap index has fallen by 15% since late April, and investors appear to be discounting further slowdowns ahead. We think the disconnect that exists between stock valuations and company fundamentals could end very soon.
This de-rating is not the result of any significant earnings downgrades, but rather due to fear over the late stage of the economic cycle and external factors such as Brexit, Italy’s budget deficit and global growth. Current multiples suggest investors are already discounting weaker earnings for the next two years. Although economic growth expectations are pointing to a softer trajectory, fundamentals look resilient. Here are a few observations to support our view:
Italy and Brexit remain an important risk, and the situation could stay gloomy a little longer. Until Italy implements its budget and more clarity emerges from the Brexit negotiations, investors could stay on the sidelines. In this context, financial markets should remain volatile.
It is worth mentioning that our investment philosophy prioritizes companies that offer above average industry growth with good free cash flow levels and strong balance sheets. Our approach has delivered good performance results in both up and down markets. We believe the current market environment creates interesting opportunities.
The Global Alpha Team
This report is provided solely for informational purposes and nothing in this document constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security. This report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient and does not constitute a representation that any investment strategy is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances. Global Alpha Capital Management Ltd. (Global Alpha) in no case directly or implicitly guarantees the future value of securities mentioned in this document. The opinions expressed herein are based on Global Alpha's analysis as at the date of this report, and any opinions, projections or estimates may be changed without notice. Global Alpha, its affiliates, directors, officers and employees may buy, sell or hold a position in securities of a company(ies) mentioned herein. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources, which Global believes to be reliable but Global Alpha makes no representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein and accepts no responsibility or liability for loss or damage arising from the receipt or use of this document or its contents.
1 All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F units; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at September 30, 2018; e) annual returns are from 03/15/2018. The index is 100% MSCI EAFE Small Cap NR USD (CAD) and is computed by Ninepoint Partners LP based on publicly available index information.
Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for Series F of the Funds for the period ended September 30, 2018 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in [unit/share] value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.
The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks. See the prospectus of the Fund for a description of these risks: commodity risk; concentration risk; credit risk; currency risk; derivatives risk; exchange traded funds risk; foreign investment risk; in ation risk; interest rate risk; liquidity risk; market risk; securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; series risk; short selling risk; small capitalization natural resource company risk; small company risk; tax risk.
The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Funds may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.
The opinions, estimates and projections (“information”) contained within this report are solely those of Ninepoint Partners LP (“Ninepoint”) and are subject to change without notice. Ninepoint makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, Ninepoint assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. Ninepoint is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances.
Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Ninepoint Partners LP. These views are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.
Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. DEALER SERVICES: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540