Year-to-date to September 30, the Ninepoint Global Real Estate Fund generated a total return of 17.19% compared to the MSCI World IMI Core Real Estate Index, which generated a total return of 14.30%. For the month, the Fund generated a total return of -4.99% while the Index generated a total return of -5.24%.
September has lived up to its reputation as a particularly difficult month for investors. Several interrelated factors, that had generally been ignored until now, suddenly weighted on investor psyche and triggered a long-awaited correction in risk assets. We would characterize the drivers of the selloff into three main buckets: concern regarding the Fed tapering bond purchases or raising interest rates, anxiety regarding supply chain issues (and the ensuing inflationary pressures) and worries regarding political gridlock in Washington.
As we’ve discussed before, the path to monetary policy normalization was always going to be a tricky one, despite being well-telegraphed. Although Chairman Powell’s recent comments have been quite dovish, other members of the FOMC have been more hawkish. But the September 22nd FOMC meeting provided some clarity, with the official statement suggesting that the economy was making progress and “if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted”. The subsequent press conference confirmed the prevailing view that asset purchases would be gradually reduced likely starting in November and that the tapering would continue through the middle of 2022. Powell, once again, took the time to articulate that a reduction in asset purchases is not intended to signal impending rate hikes, essentially confirming the Fed’s stance that tapering is not tightening. However, the statement and press conference were enough to finally push the US Treasury bond yield above 1.50%, which negatively impacted long-duration assets.
The second issue pressuring markets are the supply chain issues that have been impacting global manufacturing, thus creating transitory inflation across a wide range of industries. The extent of the problem can be seen by examining the semiconductor industry, where shortages are particularly noteworthy because of the almost ubiquitous nature of the component. The fallout from the semi shortage has hit the automotive industry hard, with US September light vehicle sales down 25% to just over 12 million units. Inventories have dropped to only 1 million units or approximately 25 days of supply, which has boosted the average transaction price 19% above last year’s level. Adding to the pain, commodity prices and shipping rates have spiked. We have seen a similar domino effect across various segments of the consumer discretionary and industrial manufacturing sectors. So, from an equity investor perspective, we need to be aware of the threat of margin compression and weaker profitability for certain industries. The situation, whether temporary or not, simply doesn’t help investor confidence today and the sectors and individual stocks most impacted have been understandably weak.
Finally, despite the optimism surrounding the new administration in Washington, infighting and partisan politics seem to be leading to gridlock at an inopportune time. Although Congress managed to pass a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown, we are still waiting for the debt ceiling to be raised, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill to be passed into law and negotiations for a broader social infrastructure spending bill to be concluded. The debt ceiling is the priority, with the potential for a default by mid to late-October, obviously an unpalatable scenario. However, we have been down this road before and most expect a resolution in a timely manner. In terms of the fiscal spending packages, it is disappointing that the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill has not yet been approved, but we still expect a positive outcome due to the essential nature of the spending. Regarding the proposed $3.5 trillion social infrastructure spending package, signs of a compromise already seem to be emerging, but negotiations should be expected to continue right up to the self-imposed October 31 deadline. Uncertainty is never good for the equity markets but if we can get through this period, or even show some progress towards a positive outcome, the markets should respond in kind.
Despite the market setback in September, we remain generally optimistic regarding the investment outlook once we get through what could be a choppy October. Looking at valuations, with long-term interest rates still well below 2.0% (the US 10-year Treasury bond yield is now trading around 1.50%) and consensus earnings growth of 8% in 2022, forward earnings multiples should be expected to gently trend lower over time but remain elevated relative to historic levels. We are not expecting the onset of a meaningfully deeper correction, or a bear market, given that vaccination rates are up, Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths are down, and the global economy is slowly reopening. Essentially, we think that this environment bodes well for the relative performance of our dividend and real asset strategies over the medium term.
Top contributors to the year-to-date performance of the Ninepoint Global Real Estate Fund by sub-industry included Residential REITs (+680 bps), Industrial REITs (+441 bps) and Specialized REITs (+408 bps) while top detractors by sub-industry included Health Care REITs (-68 bps), Integrated Telecommunication Services (-23 bps) and Diversified REITs (-10bps) on an absolute basis.
On a relative basis, positive return contributions from the Residential REITs (+329 bps), Industrial REITs (+204 bps) and Specialized REITs (+174 bps) sub-industries were offset by negative contributions from the Health Care REITs (-134 bps), Diversified REITs (-87 bps) and Office REITs (-67 bps) sub-industries.
We are currently overweight Industrial REITs, Residential REITs and Specialized REITs while underweight Real Estate Operating Companies, Health Care REITs and Office REITs. We have positioned for the middle phase of the investment cycle, where above-average earnings, cash flow and dividend growth should compensate for some degree of multiple-compression. In the Real Estate sector, the reopening trade has gained momentum through the summer and into the fall, and we are positioned for continued outperformance of this theme.
The Ninepoint Global Real Estate Fund was concentrated in 30 positions as at September 30, 2021 with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 36.8% of the fund. Over the prior fiscal year, 19 out of our 30 holdings have announced a dividend increase, with an average hike of 0.8% (median hike of 4.1%). Using a total real estate approach, we will continue to apply a disciplined investment process, balancing valuation, growth and yield in an effort to generate solid risk-adjusted returns.
Jeffrey Sayer, CFA
1All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F units; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at September 30, 2021; e) 2015 annual returns are from 08/04/15 to 12/31/15. The index is 100% MSCI World IMI Core Real Estate NR (CAD) and is computed by Ninepoint Partners LP based on publicly available index information
The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks. See the Simplified Prospectus of the Fund for a description of these risks: capital depletion risk, concentration risk, credit risk, currency risk, cybersecurity risk; derivatives risk, emerging markets risk, equity real estate investment trust (REIT) risk, exchange traded funds risk, foreign investment risk, income trust risk, inflation risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, real estate risk, regulatory risk, series risk, short selling risk, specific issuer risk, tax risk.
Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rate of return for series F units of the Fund for the period ended September 30, 2021 is based on the historical annual compounded total return including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.
The opinions, estimates and projections (“information”) contained within this report are solely those of Ninepoint Partners LP and are subject to change without notice. Ninepoint Partners makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, Ninepoint Partners assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. Ninepoint Partners is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances. Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Ninepoint Partners. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not to be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by Ninepoint Partners is or will be invested. Ninepoint Partners and/or its affiliates may collectively beneficially own/control 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. Ninepoint Partners and/or its affiliates may hold short position in any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. During the preceding 12 months, Ninepoint Partners and/or its affiliates may have received remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services from the issuers mentioned in this report.
Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. DEALER SERVICES: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540